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U.S. Crude Oil Production Potential: A Stochastic Outlook through 2030

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For a short timne - 10% off. The quantitative approach by well known author, Rafael Sandrea, PhD, is to apply his unique proprietary methodology to analyze each source of US crude. From basins, tight oil, top producing fields, plus study of all reserves numbers, to establish a base line, minimum of output, for each crude source. The impact of both tight oil and new NGLs on US supply over the next 20 years was also analyzed. Among findings, the report notes that:

  • The upside scenario for tight oil points toward a peak potential of nearly 4 million b/d.
  • CO2-EOR can recover up to 10% of the 380 billion barrels of stranded oil. Chemical EOR methods, recently proven overseas, could contribute with an additional recovery of at least another 15%.
  • The upside scenario for US crude oil shows a potential growth to almost 8 million b/d. By the same token, total liquids supply could reach 16 million b/d, from 10 million b/d today.

All outlooks are stochastic rather than a single deterministic forecast. This approach provides a better account for intrinsic indeterminates associated with even the ‘best’ estimates of EOR potential, of the probable recoverable reserves of tight oil resource plays, and of the most likely yet-to-find reserves over the 20-year forecast period. Reserves are the unique parameter that determines the upper limit of production capacity of any oil or gas field.


  • North Slope potential
  • US Gulf stranded oil
  • Tight oil plays in the Permian
  • San Joaquin a possible resurgence
  • CO2 in the Williston
  • EOR Potential
  • Upswing of total liquids
  • Two scenarios for future crude production
  • Future impact of EOR
  • Reserves issues in the six major tight oil plays
    • Bakken,
    • Eagle Ford
    • Nobrara
    • Monterey
    • Avalon
    • Bone Springs

Date Published

August, 2012

Format / Pages

PDF / 65 pages


Dr. Rafael Sandrea, is author of over 33 technical papers, eReports, and a text book used in petroleum engineering courses around the world, Dr. Sandrea’s previous forecasts have proved to be right on target. For over 30 years he has provided technical services in oil and gas project management, reservoir engineering, geology, seismic processing, and E&P data management through out the world; plus 20 years of petroleum consultation.

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