INTEGRATING PROBABILISTIC AND DETERMINISTIC TECHNIQUES This comprehensive report gives decision-makers a series of tools for evaluating oil and gas assets and assesses risks in property transactions. The author, a consultant who has worked in the oil and gas industry since the early 1980's, describes the quantitative techniques useful for valuation and in-depth economic analysis of oil and gas properties and corporate ventures.
Among the subjects covered: Analyzing input and output variables and distributions. How probabilistic techniques incorporate and quantify risks associated with a range of future uncertainties. How deterministic techniques provide sensitivity analysis of economic outcomes related to a range of input assumptions. Using chance and decision trees with deterministics techniques. Applying the techniques of Monte Carlo simulation Selecting distribution types to be applied to input variables in building probabilistic models. Quantifying downside risk as an aid to decision-making. Determining mean downside risk to define the efficient frontier of a portfolio. Assessing statistical confidence levels. Systematically quantifying risked reserves. Quantifying upside and downside risks with probabilistic valuation techniques from the perspectives of sellers and purchasers or borrowers, and lenders in transactions involving oil and gas assets.
Reasons to Buy
Integration of deterministic and probabilistic techniques can fine-tune the evaluation for parties on both sides of a the prospective transaction.
Author: David A. Wood David A. Wood & Associates